The following includes my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side.
Considering the forced and longer-than-usual break the NHL had over the holidays, we'll use an even 50-50 split between those ratings and the pre-season priors via the regular-season point-total markets. Two months ago, I posted my 2021-22 campaign ratings that use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. The recipeīefore the campaign, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines. Even the Coyotes have won two of their last five, and the Canadiens (+250) scored a dramatic upset win on Thursday. The other 30 clubs are fair game, though, whether it's finding value with the Stars (+220) at the Avalanche or the Oilers (-220) as a better-than-fair favorite at home over the Ducks. Now that teams are crossing the 50-game mark on their schedules, and we've moved to a 60-40 split with weight towards this season's metrics, our ratings are catching up to how bad both squads are.
In handicapping-speak, both sides' "priors" wouldn't be trustworthy. The Montreal Canadiens didn't intend to be bad this year, but with the key veterans from their run to the Stanley Cup Final missing before the first puck even dropped, the signs for a down campaign were certainly there. The Arizona Coyotes made it clear early they were not going to be competitive this season. One silver lining about this tumultuous NHL season - during which lineups have become exponentially jumbled in ways we've never quite seen before - is that the clubs you'd want to steer clear of were obvious before the campaign started.
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